The humiliation of Vladimir Putin at the St Petersburg International Economic Forum, punctuated by Ukrainian drone strikes 1,000km from the border, signals a new phase of the war. Despite the symbolic attendance of US Fine Arts Commission head Rodney Mims Cook Jr., the reliance on Washington is diminishing. Kyiv has successfully ramped up domestic production of high-tech, long-range weaponry, effectively tightening the blockade on Crimea and rendering the Kerch bridge a precarious escape route rather than a secure supply line.
Ukraine’s battlefield shift and the specter of Russian collapse
Ukraine’s recent long-range strikes deep into Russian territory have punctured the narrative of an inevitable Kremlin victory. While Vladimir Putin attempts to project stability at home, the strategic reality has shifted, leaving Kyiv’s allies to grapple with the unpredictable fallout of a potentially crumbling Russian state.
Anne Applebaum and other observers note that this rapid military innovation has fundamentally altered the momentum. Russia’s vulnerability is now psychological as much as it is military, as the promise of a quick, easy victory collapses under the weight of an existential struggle. However, the prospect of a Russian 'smuta'—a time of troubles—creates a dangerous divide. While nations bordering Russia, from Finland to Poland, are preparing for the volatility of a collapsing regime, Western allies further afield remain largely unready for the chaos that would follow an ailing Putin’s departure. Whether Kyiv pushes for a decisive battlefield victory or accepts a fragile truce, the coming political instability in Moscow threatens to be more disruptive than the collapse of the Soviet Union.
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